Tag Archives: risk management

From unknowns to black swans

From unknowns to black swans

Why more positive ‘counterfactual reasoning’ is better than reactive ‘disconfirmation’ in dealing with extremely uncertain situations. Discussion of risk management in the past two decades has often revolved around two catchy phrases: the “known unknowns” coined in 2002 by then-US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, and the “black swans” of the 2007 book (The Black Swan)… Read more

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