Tag Archives: decision making

From unknowns to black swans

From unknowns to black swans

Why more positive ‘counterfactual reasoning’ is better than reactive ‘disconfirmation’ in dealing with extremely uncertain situations. Discussion of risk management in the past two decades has often revolved around two catchy phrases: the “known unknowns” coined in 2002 by then-US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, and the “black swans” of the 2007 book (The Black Swan)… Read more

Managerial temperament

Managerial temperament

Emotions can poison decision making and lead to short-sightedness, but passion can also inspire commitment and creativity. The key is to harness emotions so they help achieve objectives. When I discuss decision making with my students, we always start with the fact that 50 years of business education has taught that managers should be detached… Read more

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